TOPIC: ARGUMENT45

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

WORDS:380 TIME:00:50:46 DATE:2008-7-10 21:45:00

This statement asserts that the declining of arctic deer is caused by recent global warming trends, which results to the sea ice to melt and apparently blocks the deer's age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. However, the opinion cannot be accepted due to some obviously logical fallacious.

First, the statement mentioned that according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining, which is not convincible in statistic. As a common practice, the arctic deer may spread in mass area in the arctic region of Canada. In the mean time, we also have insufficient information of those hunters' location, thus, we can reasonable assume that it is possible in one small area, the arctic deer is declining, but they are increasing in the whole region.

Second, the reports it selves is too vague to be informative. The time when the reports are been surveyed is unknown. It is possible that the arctic deer are under migrating while the reports are been made, thus the reports will show a inaccurate stat that the deer are declining. According to this, the judgments of local hunters are lack of credibility.

Third, the statement obviously ignored that there are mass of environmental factors, except the mentioned global warming trends, will contribute to this species' declining. The habitant of this deer is in arctic region where the UV protect layer, a layer that keeps creatures on earth from harming ray from space, is sharply attenuating and the whole arctic area is overdose exposed under the UV, which can damage the creature's reproductive organ. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that the UV may play a important role in this species' declining.

In addition, the recent research shows that some poisonous chemical, for example, DDT, is accumulating in the arctic creatures. Those poisonous chemical may also have a negative effect on their reproduction, then declining their species as a result. The statement does not consider these possibilities, thus the conclusion is doubtful.

In sum, the statement cannot be trusted due to a failure of credible in the reports and a ignorance of other possible factors. To make this result convincible, the statement should provide the coverage area of those hunters and when the reports are been made. The other possible factors are also necessities.

Argument 51

TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."

WORDS: 405 TIME: 01:02:43 DATE: 2008/7/9 21:57:07

The medical newsletter claims that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment, and it also provides the experiments conducted by Dr. Newland and Dr. Alton to support this theory. However, this theory has some appreciate logical fallacious.

First, the experiment is not credible in both statistic and scientific. There are two groups of patients who have participated in the experiment and each quantity of the group is not informed, thus we cannot certain if the two group is equal in participants, therefore the percentage in the results is not statistically reliable. Moreover, the experiment itself has some flaws. It is doubtful that whatever the sugar pills or antibiotics, which Dr. Alton and Dr. Newland had given to their patients, may have some negative effect just on the muscle strain. Assuming the pills have negative effects, the comparison of recuperation time of the two groups is invalid.

On the second hand, the medical newsletter cannot guarantee that the two doctors have the same ability in treating muscle strain. As the information provided above, it is reasonable to believe that Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, may or apparently has some advantages in treating such muscle strains while Dr. Alton may not have those advantages. The ability of doctors is different, let alone to comparing their patients' recuperation.

Then, the results of both Dr. Newland and Dr. Alton are too vague to be informative. The newsletter provided only a percentage comparison to prove that Dr. Newland's treatment can significantly reduce the recuperation time while Dr. Alton cannot. The percentage comparison can be convincible just under the circumstance that we have informed the total figure of these percentages before, and without that, the results are inconvincible.

Fourth, the medical newsletter also provides insufficient information on the details of muscle injuries and the age of the two groups. As we know, both types of muscle injuries and ages can have variety impacts on the experiment results. Maybe the first group is younger and they also have light muscle injuries while the second group is elder and have critical injuries, therefore the first group can recuperating faster than the second group.

In sum, the experiment's results are inconvincible due to these logical flaws listed above. To make the results reliable, the newsletter may have to reconsider the scientifically and statistically fallacious on their experiment.

TOPIC: ARGUMENT36

TOPIC: ARGUMENT36 - The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.

"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."

WORDS: 304 TIME: 00:39:36 DATE: 2008/7/6 21:22:05

The statement of Dr.Karp asserted that the island of Tertia does not have a custom that rearing a child by the whole village rather than his biological parents. And, in this statement, Dr. Karp also thought that the observation-centred approach by Dr. Field was not accurate.

However, in the first, Dr. Karp fails to bring out the quantity of his interview samples. We are lack of the information that whether Dr. Karp's interview covered all parts of the islands. If the sample quantity is insufficient, the interview is lack of statistic reliablity, and any conclusion based on this interview cannot be trusted.

On the second hand, it is unconvincable that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village can prove that these children is reared by their biological parents. Dr. Karp fails to figure out the connection between talking partners and the persons who are in charge of rearing children. It is reasonable to assume that these children talking much more to their biological parents just for the reason of they are living close. Maybe these children are living together with their biological parents, and, as we know, living together needs more communication.

Moreover, Dr. Karp draws a conclusion that the observation-centered approach to studying culture is invalid just because the doctor think that one research via this method is false. This judgement is lack of evidence. Dr. Karp's research is lack of reliability and every conclusion based on this research is doubtful, let alone thus uncertain conclusion is been used to assail another one.

In sum, if Dr. Karp intends to prove that his research is reliable, he must bring out a statistically convincable interview, which is a fundamental of all his theory, and provide more evidence before assailing an approach is invalid.

TOPIC: ARGUMENT200

TOPIC: ARGUMENT200 - Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.

WORDS: 292 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008/7/6 22:09:31

This statement asserts that according to a statistics collected from dentists, three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist, and it also draws a conclusion that the dentists should emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.

Firstly, the statistics is inconvincible in statistic. We are lack of the information about the quantity of the dentists and the interviewing area. Lacking of these information, the statistics cannot be trusted. It is reasonable to assume that the samples of this statistics are been collected in the same blocks, which is not scientifically reliable.

Secondly, the statement fails to inform us about the symptoms of the patients before they are visiting the dentists. As we know, some diseases can lead to a sudden faint under some specific circumstances. Therefore, it is inconvincible that the evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are.

Thirdly, to decrease faint in visiting the dentist has not any direct connections with improving anesthetic techniques and staff service. Maybe it is the anesthetic drug injections it selves that lead to more faint. Therefore, improving anesthetic techniques and staff service may not help to decrease the number of faint customers in visiting the dentist; the advertisement to attracting just male consumer cannot convince us.

In the final analysis, the statistics do not provide a convincible conclusion, and the dentists who advertise to attract patients cannot believe these results. To make the conclusion more reliable, we need to be informed about the details of the quantity of the statistic samples, and clarify that if there is any other possible reason to lead to the faint in visiting the dentist.

ARGUMENT16

TOPIC: ARGUMENT16 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.

"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."

WORDS: 376 TIME: Unlimited DATE: 2008-5-25 22:01:00

The author said that their neighboring state, Lucria has a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. And the author also concludes that if their state, Impecunia, has a lottery like that, the lottery would be doubtless successful and the profit could be used to improve their educational system and public health program. However, the author fails to convince anybody that the lottery can be profitable.

Firstly, the author's point depends on the assumption that the survey is statistically reliable. Yet, the author offers no evidence to substantiate this assumption. The author must show that not only the quantities of the conducted samples are sufficient, but the samples can represent of every level of age and jobs. Without a statistically reliable survey, the author cannot make any conclusions based on it.

In addition, the author think that the person who spending on gambling will also spending on lottery. Though lottery is a special pattern of gambling, but they are not same. The survey fails to show which patterns of gambling people intend to, thus we cannot predict that whether the lottery can be accept by the players of gambling.

Secondly, the author's inference that the Lucria's state lottery which is effective in Lucria will also be effective in Impecunia rests on the poor assumption that the two states in any aspects are the same. Perhaps Lucria has fewer population of pupil and groups that requires health treatment than us, thus Lucria can spend more on every pupil they has and the person who needs health service.

Furthermore, Lucria started the state lottery two years ago, the author draws the conclusion that the lottery will doubtless be successful if it starts in Impecunia based on the consumers of the lottery can keep increasing in the future. However, we cannot foresee if more consumers of Impecunia will play with this lottery in the future, therefore, we cannot assume that the lottery will be successful let alone about the lottery can be profitable.

In all, the survey provided by the author, which is the base of the new lottery assumption in Impecunia, is lack of statistically credit. Without a credible survey and a reasonable assumption, the author's suggestion about lottery in Impecunia cannot be adopted.

ARGUMENT65----Draft

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

WORDS: 131 TIME: 00:18:45 DATE: 2008-5-19 0:44:18

The president did not show the capacity of the survey's sample, which means we cannot prove that if store domestic cheeses single could bring any profits according to the survey. Nevertheless, the subscribers, whom we do not know which groups they are belong to, will not support the point of storing domestic cheeses primarily perfectly, for the subscribers may intend to choose domestic cheeses but imported ones.

Moreover, the best-selling cheese in our newest store cannot indicate that the cheese would be best-selling in all of our stores. And the recent survey, which gave a prediction, cannot be a strong reason for us to store domestic cheeses primarily. What's more, we did not give any information about the so-called ' an increasing preference' which, however, the increase rate can be tiny.